Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 77442.903171 81783.935302 86123.447601 90783.764378 95643.736421 100559.256630 105903.511953
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 70236.943557 76860.667873 83666.501518 91172.140400 99207.190226 107540.916919 116827.645144
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 64837.567336 72991.032635 81552.740151 91192.865086 101724.081048 112858.490287 125499.492816
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 61477.048053 70857.962584 80887.292214 92373.648373 105129.750752 118826.426419 134609.263927
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 57772.185207 68014.510406 79142.557825 92081.329029 106660.131003 122526.867785 141047.924345
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 55720.509372 66829.162145 79069.271497 93488.660224 109939.610414 128051.925349 149427.511960
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 53623.468162 65436.566171 78623.732579 94347.519410 112492.803596 132681.949601 156746.708605
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51287.851644 63630.949058 77582.120387 94408.291088 114035.887371 136090.778437 162624.407823
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49063.669223 61840.357862 76453.324467 94269.358882 115263.072924 139071.742233 167963.825935
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48061.178618 61434.186828 76890.429442 95915.366053 118533.810590 144392.873756 176010.078915
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 47130.610739 61056.820049 77313.614749 97505.411638 121712.861709 149598.717678 183934.414324
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 45728.595778 60041.679415 76917.463658 98067.351160 123634.688128 153307.876234 190097.763084
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44017.310667 58609.449194 75993.362069 97983.558923 124794.785435 156150.878932 195302.904118
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 42659.001910 57567.663385 75505.239072 98397.256540 126534.645304 159680.232097 201342.297621
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 41193.170643 56335.520732 74733.806313 98419.475157 127764.637747 162578.237226 206621.205003
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 40415.998392 55943.526641 74977.551974 99674.506561 130491.036680 167281.485490 214094.193112
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 38949.075284 54614.485161 74000.047542 99363.843431 131252.025732 169576.365804 218637.501731
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 38396.924927 54446.746215 74471.063614 100859.425216 134251.000315 174611.388574 226546.802284
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 37616.243322 53949.665036 74497.226195 101772.007281 136510.399254 178739.058240 233360.109065
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 36504.597357 52978.382768 73881.376851 101836.576583 137680.924358 181510.245043 238502.621485
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35357.454425 51923.424493 73124.104814 101688.961998 138558.464452 183902.641173 243172.505166
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 35062.579790 52002.152728 73836.501274 103437.667620 141855.297401 189329.870620 251651.463611
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 34759.648356 52055.617921 74505.967624 105126.578632 145080.407155 194683.027683 260069.640202